Big Sky Seahawks: UNCW opening with Southern Miss
The Seahawks will play three games over three nights in Montana.
UNCW (3-2) vs. Southern Miss (2-2)
7 p.m. | Dahlberg Arena | Listen | StatBroadcast
Already away from home for six days, the Seahawks take flight in Big Sky Country on Wednesday night.
This season’s Thanksgiving trip takes UNCW to Montana for the Zootown Classic, where it opens the event against Southern Miss on Wednesday night at Dahlberg Arena.
It’ll be the first of three games in three days, as the Seahawks meet host Montana on Thursday night before closing out the trip vs. UC San Diego on Friday night.
Unfortunately, there will be no video stream for the matchup with the Golden Eagles, but thankfully, UNCW play-by-play man Mike Vaccaro (and loyal Perch subscriber!) will have the call on 95.9 The Breeze.
Here’s what you need to know before tip-off.
About Southern Miss
Meet a team struggling to shoot the ball while working in a handful of newcomers, yet having quite a bit of success on defense and pushing tempo.
Sound familiar? In many ways, USM and UNCW are similar teams in those regards.
In terms of personnel, junior guard Tae Hardy (pictured) is a proven scorer who has taken his game to the next level this season, already posting 30- and 23-point performances.
Hardy has been USM’s best and most consistent player this season, but Tyler Stevenson, a 6-8, 215-pound forward, is a monster on the boards who is capable of going for 10-plus on any given night. Guard Jaron Pierre won’t be afraid to shoot it, but so far, he’s hitting just 27.9 percent from the field.
The Eagles were voted 12th of 14 teams in the Conference USA preseason poll.
Key Players: G Tae Hardy (21.3 points, 2.5 steals, 37.5 3P%), F Isaih Moore (14.8 points, 7 rebounds), G Jaron Pierre Jr. (8.3 points, 3.3 rebounds), F DeAndre Pinckney (7.3 points, 5.8 rebounds), F Tyler Stevenson (6.7 points, 8.3 rebounds).
KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 267 overall, No. 230 Offense, No. 289 Defense.
KenPom rankings for USM: No. 239 overall, No. 283 Offense, No. 164 Defense.
KenPom forecast: USM 68, UNCW 66 (44 percent chance of victory)
Our Kind of Game
With three full days since its last game, UNCW should come into this one fully rested and healthy.
Although USM pushes the tempo, that’s been a bit problematic to this point, as the Eagles rank 311th nationally in turnover rate, giving the ball up on 23.4 percent of possessions for an average of 16 a per game.
Not all turnovers are created equally though, as errant passes and offensive fouls aren’t nearly as bad as steals, which the Eagles have particularly struggled with. Those live-ball turnovers are the lifeblood of the UNCW attack.
USM’s Hardy, Moore and Pierre are all averaging at least two turnovers per game, so expect to see UNCW unleash 94 feet of pressure early and often, and ideally, keeping the Eagles’ talented guards from finding a rhythm.
It’s no accident that the Seahawks had their best performance of the season when they got nine steals vs. Coastal Carolina, helping to fuel 12 points off turnovers and 14 on the break. UNCW took 29 percent of its field goal attempts in transition that night — the most transition attempts of the season by a wide margin.
Further broken down, the Seahawks took 10 of their 17 attempts from beyond the arc while getting the remaining seven at the rim.
Pressure and steals mean UNCW gets to play transition basketball, leading to open 3-point shooters and high-percentage looks at the rim.
Harvey Helps
After Jamahri Harvey missed the game at Delaware State, it was a relief to see him on Monday in photos the team posted from its workout in Montana.
Harvey, a second-year wing, played one of his best halves as a Seahawk vs. Coastal on Nov. 18 when he not only scored seven points, grabbed two rebounds and handed out two assists in seven minutes, but he brought Trask Coliseum to life with a big 3-pointer and a nice steal that led to a bucket.
It’s unclear if he suffered a minor injury, was dealing with an illness or something else entirely, but Harvey’s importance for UNCW goes far beyond any stat sheet.
According to Pivot Analysis, no player has a bigger impact on the Seahawk defense than Harvey. Now, don’t interpret that to say that Harvey is UNCW’s definitely best defender, because that’s not what the analytics support.
What Pivot does say is, with Harvey (76 possessions) in the lineup, opponents are averaging 89.3 points per 100 possessions. The next closest among regular rotation players is James Baker (191 possessions), whose lineups are allowing 94.7 points per 100.
(With Jamarii Thomas on the court, UNCW is allowing 82.9 points per 100 possessions in the 25 minutes and 42 possessions he’s played.)
It’s hard to measure a player’s defensive impact without studying their tape while understanding their help rules and correct rotations, but this measure tells us a ton that simply counting blocks and steals can’t.
Then, consider another way to look at it: with Harvey on the bench, UNCW is allowing 102.3 points per 100 possessions — the biggest net difference (13 points) on the roster.
That’s pretty convincing evidence that Harvey is doing a great job defensively, despite not putting up flashy block or steal numbers. Hopefully, he’ll be ready to roll on Wednesday night.
Going Deep
After the win at Delaware State, UNCW coach Takayo Siddle talked about the value of his team’s depth and the need for everyone to step up and contribute this week, given the Seahawks will play back-to-back-to-back games.
Luckily for Siddle, he’s been pretty comfortable with a 10-man rotation over the first five games, while two more players — Khamari McGriff and Khadim Samb — made brief appearances due to foul trouble.
Add in a little elevation with Missoula, Mont. sitting 3,205 feet above sea level, and fatigue will almost certainly become a factor.
“We’re going to need everybody,” Siddle said on Saturday. “Everybody on our roster is going to have to be ready to play and step up at some point, which is why I’m happy; I think the best thing about his group is our depth.”
In all, UNCW’s bench is averaging 23.4 points while nine diferent Seahawks are averaging at least 10 minutes per game.
Over five games, four different players have led UNCW in scoring, while six are averaging between 6.8 and 10.6 points — all of which have had at least one double-figure scoring performance thus far.
Siddle hasn’t been afraid to tinker with his lineups, either, playing 21 different groupings of players together for three minutes or more.
After last year’s nightmare scenario, it’s especially nice to have the luxury of a 10-man rotation to help tackle this challenge.
The Right Fit
As Siddle works for the right lineup combinations and roles, it appears he struck gold by moving Jaylen Sims to the bench after a slow offensive start that saw him averaging 7.6 points on 25 percent shooting from the field, Sims has averaged 15 points and seven rebounds as a substitute, hitting on 40 percent of his attempts.
The biggest change in his game has been shot selection, with Sims taking 68.3 percent of his shots from 3-point range since moving to the bench, as opposed to 35.2 percent as a starter.
He’s also largely removed the 2-point jumper from his arsenal, going from getting 48.6 percent of his attempts in that category, to 16.7 percent over the past two games.
Sims’ minutes haven’t changed aside from not being on the court for the opening tip, but now, he’s taking and making more valuable shots more frequently.
Tip-Ins
The Seahawks departed Wilmington on Friday, flying to Philadelphia, bussing to Dover, Del. and then returning to Philadelphia for a Sunday flight to Denver, then on to Missoula, arriving Sunday evening. In all, sandwiched more than 3,00 miles of travel around the victory at Delaware State.
This is the first meeting between UNCW and USM.
This is the first time the Seahawks have played a game in Montana.
As a player at La Salle, UNCW assistant coach Kurt Kanaskie traveled to Dahlberg Arena for a game during the 19778-79 season, but didn’t play due to injury
USM has three NCAA Tournament appearances all-time, going in 1990, 1991 and 2012.
Clarence Weatherspoon is the most notable of former Eagles to play in the NBA.