Seahawks Head South in Search of Season Sweep
UNCW took the first meeting between the teams just 12 days ago
UNCW (14-6, 5-3) at Charleston (15-6, 6-2)
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The first one was so much fun, we decided to go ahead and renew the rivalry with Charleston again.
Indeed, it’s been just 12 days since the teams last met in Trask Coliseum, so what we lack in the measuring stick and progress perspective in this one, we’ll make up with good ol’ smack talk and fun as the Seahawks visit the Cougars on Thursday night at TD Arena in Charleston.
As always, check out this week’s episode of Perchcast for an in-depth discussion of tonight’s game, starting around the 11:50 mark.
KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 111 overall; No. 72 offense, No. 176 defense.
KenPom rankings for Charleston: No. 122 overall; No. 73 offense, No. 206 defense.
KenPom forecast: Charleston 80, UNCW 77 (41 percent chance of victory).
About the Cougars
Notable Wins: Jan 4. at Hofstra (73-61); Jan 13. vs. Monmouth (94-83); Dec. 1 vs. Liberty (76-67); Dec. 21 vs. Saint Joseph’s (89-82).
Notable Losses: Jan. 18 vs. Towson (82-78); Dec. 2 at Florida Atlantic (90-74).
Personnel: F Ante Brzovic (13 points, 6.8 rebounds); F Ben Burnham (12.3 points, 4.7 rebounds); G Reyne Smith (11.1 points, 36 3FG%); G Kobe Rodgers (9.2 points, 4.9 rebounds, 38.1 3FG%); G CJ Fulton (4.5 points, 4.2 assists); F Frankie Policelli (8.8 points, 5.0 rebounds); G Bryce Butler (8.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, 41.7 3FG%); G Jordan Crawford (5.7 points, 36.1 3FG%); F James Scott (4.7 points, 3.1 rebounds).
When Last we Met: UNCW 78, Charleston 69 (Jan. 20)
Way back in the, uh … two weeks ago the Seahawks and Cougars treated us to another classic and gave a national audience a taste of Trask at its best.
It was the emotional, back-and-forth game we’ve come to expect between the teams, and remained even right up until UNCW closed with an 11-0 run that included big buckets from Shykeim Phillips, Trazarien White and Khamari McGriff.
KJ Jenkins had his best offensive night as a Seahawk on his way to 20 points while Phillips (18 points, 6 assists) and White (17 points, 7 rebounds) finished strong after uncharacteristic shooting performances in the first half.
Ante Brzovic was masterful for the Cougs, scoiring in the post and making plays out of the pick and roll en route to 27 points and 11 rebounds.
Plenty of what we’ll cover here focuses on what we saw in the first game and what adjustments might be coming Thursday night.
Countering Counters with Counter Counters
Now, we’ve reached the fun part — a little too soon, if you ask us or anyone else following the CAA — but with it comes the chess match that coaching staffs have spent hours obsessing over in the hopes of finding an edge.
UNCW’s first change will likely be in how they handle ball screens from the opening tip. In the first meeting, the Seahawks elected to go under screens on Crawford and Butler, allowing them to knock down a couple of easy ones.
Brzovic had a field day in the first meeting, despite some solid defense from UNCW’s big men. How will the Seahawks play him from the start tonight? It’s a safe bet that it won’t be throwing straight double-teams at him, because if so, he’s talented enough as a passer to find the open man — surely a read they worked on this week. There’s a balance the Seahawks will have to find in helping down in very specific scenarios, and sending the help defense from unpredictable spots so as to keep Brzovic off balance.
It’s hard to believe, but the box score officially has Charleston for ZERO fast break points in the first meeting. That’s just an incredible performance that won’t be easy to replicate, because there’s no doubt the Cougars are going to be looking for every opportunity to push the tempo. Look for them to make an effort to get the ball inbounded faster, push the ball off defensive rebounds and maybe even mix in a press they haven’t used too much this season.
It’s a Thursday night, so the officiating crew might be a good one! Neither coach was particularly enthused regarding the referees we had in Trask, so there’s only up from here. Once the game is underway, the teams will need to adjust to how the game is being called because there’s a massive gulf from the part-timers who called the first matchup to the potential Final Four-quality refs the CAA occasionally lands on a Thursday.
Related to the last post — Charleston is going to try to set the tone physically on UNCW. There’s more than enough evidence that teams believe that is the best route to slowing down the Seahawks, and given Jenkins’ performance on Jan. 20, look for him to deal with a lot more physicality as he runs off those screens
New Month, Newby
Donovan Newby was incredibly consistent and steady for all of last season, but when the calendar flipped to February, he hit another level, closing the season with seven double-figure scoring efforts over the final 11 games.
From the start of the season in Nov. 2022 through January 2003, Newby had a total of six-double figure scoring nights in 23 games.
Getting him on that path as the Seahawks come down the stretch is a major priority, as there’s no substitute for a veteran point guard to run your offense, and given the opportunity, knock down an open 3-pointer.
In each of the past three seasons, Newby has hit at least 37 percent of his 3-point attempts. This season, he’s sitting at 25.4 percent overall and 18.2 percent in CAA play.
A proven shooter doesn’t just lose that ability overnight. It’s in there, and one night between now and Washington, D.C. in March, he’ll break out of this slump.
On Monday, UNCW coach Takayo Siddle pointed to the need for Newby to focus in on making the toughness and effort plays, and then allowing his offense to flow from there.
Given the nature of UNCW-Charleston, everyone who steps on the court will have the opportunity to get their hands dirty, and a play doesn’t care who makes it.
There’s no better opportunity for Newby to start February off right.
The Stony Brook Blueprint?
After watching the Seawolves relative “success” with zone defense against UNCW on Saturday, it’s logical to ask whether the Seahawks will be seeing more of it down the stretch.
With the bottom of the conference heavily appearing on the schedule this month, it’s probable more zone is coming. Those teams are struggling defensively, so why not give it a shot?
Charleston’s defense isn’t playing great right now, but it would be shocking if they played zone for any substantial period. Shocking like, if they had an actual cougar courtside as a live mascot.
Per Synergy, the Cougars have played defense on 1,707 possessions this season, and of them, only three (Nov. 19 and 16) were in a zone defense. Playing man allows them to capitalize on crashing the offensive boards, and on defense, Charleston is always looking to run on rebounds.
Then there’s this: Stony Brook’s zone wasn’t great.
Check out the shot chart from CBB Analytics:
UNCW didn’t always exercise the best judgment when it got the ball into the middle of the zone, but overall, the Seahawks got where they needed to go at a high rate.
In fact, they got their most high-quality shots of the season vs. a D1 opponent, putting up 18 shots considered in the top 20th percentile of most valuable shots. Prior to the visit to Stony Brook, UNCW was averaging 7.1 high-quality shots per game in CAA play.
The Seawolves’ defense obviously affected the Seahawks in a number of ways, but making just 10 of 18 on the (near) gimmes is a tough way to go down.
So, moving forward — more zone is likely coming but not tonight. With Maleeck Harden-Hayes back in the lineup in the next couple of weeks, UNCW will be even more equipped to attack the weak points.
Tonight’s CAA Matchups
(All games at 7 p.m. on FloSports unless noted)
Drexel at Monmouth
Northeastern at Towson
Stony Brook at Hofstra
Delaware at William & Mary (CBS Sports Network)
Hampton at N.C. A&T
Campbell at Elon