UNCW, Charleston Ready for Another Run
The Seahawks and Cougars both want to push the pace on Saturday
UNCW (12-5, 3-2) vs. Charleston (13-5, 4-1)
6 p.m. | CBS Sports Network | Listen | Live Stats
This one needs no introduction on our end.
In a series with one classic after another in recent years, the Seahawks and Cougars get together tonight for their first tussle since the CAA Championship heartbreaker last March.
Like that game, CBS Sports Network is giving it the big-time national treatment with star play-by-play man John Fanta on the call, and the rivalry is again generating national buzz.
It figures to be an incredible rollercoaster of a night, and one that will surely show the world what Trask Coliseum and UNCW are all about.
We’ve got a few things to watch for tonight, but first, check out this week’s special episode of Perchcast for more on the matchup with Charleston, plus plenty to discuss from the win at Elon.
KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 117 overall; No. 80 offense, No. 185 defense.
KenPom rankings for Charleston: No. 124 overall; No. 93 offense, No. 1 79 defense.
KenPom forecast: UNCW 81, Charleston 77 (63 percent chance of victory)
Meet the Cougars
Notable Wins: Jan 4. at Hofstra (73-61); Jan 13. vs. Monmouth (94-83); Dec. 1 vs. Liberty (76-67); Dec. 21 vs. Saint Joseph’s (89-82).
Notable Losses: Jan. 18 vs. Towson (82-78); Dec. 2 at Florida Atlantic (90-74).
Personnel: F Ante Brzovic (11.7 points, 6.5 rebounds); F Ben Burnham (12.9 points, 4.7 rebounds); G Reyne Smith (11.1 points, 36.6 3FG%); G Kobe Rodgers (9.7 points, 5.2 rebounds, 38.1 3FG%); G CJ Fulton (4.4 points, 4.1 assists); F Frankie Policelli (8.8 points, 5.1 rebounds); G Bryce Butler (8.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, 39.1 3FG%); F James Scott (5.1 points, 3.3 rebounds).
When Last we Met: Charleston 63, UNCW 57 (CAA Championship; March 7, 2023)
Two completely insane games last season (and one we’ll never discuss again publicly), but ultimately, the difference was Charleston’s wealth of experienced talent in the lineup.
Twice, the Cougs’ super-seniors sparked rallies and willed them across the finish line.
Things are a little different this season for Charleston, as Ryan Larson, Dalton Bolon, Pat Robinson and Jaylon Scott all exhausted their eligibility.
By no means that mean Charleston is down and out — they’re just different, which happens when you lose that much talent, experience and grit in one offseason.
The Cougs sit in second place and feature one of the league’s deepest rosters, with several newcomers filling in around their core of Burnham, Brzovic and Smith.
Brzovic is an incredibly skilled big man capable of stepping out to knock down shots on the perimeter while Burnham is just a tough, athletic dude that is going to find a way to make an impact. Don’t let the shooting percentage fool you — Smith is among the best pure shooters in the league.
Rodgers, a former D-II All-American, is lighting quick and seemingly just hit his stride offensively.
Embrace the Pace
Few teams have had any interest in letting UNCW run this season, and clearly, those games have been the toughest.
Overall, the Seahawks are 8-1 (losing at Arkansas) when games reach at least 70 possessions this season, while they’re 4-4 in games that feature 69 possessions or fewer.
Good news! Charleston actually wants to go even faster and ranks 27th nationally at just over 72 possessions per game.
The Seahawks really found a stride against Delaware in pushing pace, from inbounding the ball more quickly to even applying fullcourt pressure on missed shots.
UNCW had 19 transition possessions against the Blue Hens and 12 at Elon, which was quite the improvement after a total of 17 in the losses to Drexel and Towson.
Naturally, Charleston is pretty good at the running thing, too, which means the Seahawks are going to have to take care of the basics — getting back on defense and keeping an eye on Smith when he leaks out to the 3-point line on the break.
Don’t expect to see an all-out press, as the Cougs are lethal against fullcourt defense, ranking in the 87th percentile in points per possession. Very few teams have tried to press them, as it plays into their hands by creating pace and space.
Shy’s Redemption
With injuries throwing last season totally out of whack for Shykeim Phillips, the Charleston loss at Trask was a particularly tough night, scoring 4 points on 1 of 4 shooting in just 13 minutes.
With the game on the line in the final seconds, Phillips was unable to beat his man off the dribble and had to put up a long, contested jumper that was ultimately blocked by Jaylon Scott.
Unfortunately, a number of idiots on social media did what they do and forgot how many times Phillps had delivered before that moment.
All he’s done since then is lead the nation in clutch scoring average.
In this type of game, Phillips should thrive on the pace and space, and he’ll have every opportunity to write another incredible chapter in a career that should see his jersey end up hanging in Trask.
Shooters Shoot
Neither team is shooting the ball as well as it could or should be from 3-point range.
Still, the Cougars are going to put it up from beyond the arc — averaging 23.5 attempts — early and often, despite shooting 32.1 percent from long range.
It’s always a mild concern when a great shooter isn’t knocking them down, because the numbers suggest that will eventually find the mean.
We saw exactly that on Thursday night, as UNCW exorcised some of its shooting demons with by hitting 7 of 12 from 3-point range in the first half.
KJ Jenkins, who has hit 8 of 14 from long range over the past two games, is finding his stride and has the potential to be a gamechanger tonight if Charleston elects to crowd the lane to slow down Trazarien White in the paint.
Injuries and such
Ahmard Harvey sure looked good in his few minutes against Elon on Thursday night. The big man is still finding his footing, but he gave us a pretty great preview with a nice offensive move and a couple of rebounds.
Just as important, he looked plenty capable in defensive switches, as he was able to move his feet and stick with quicker guards.
After Maleeck Harden-Hayes missed the Elon game and appeared to be limping, it seems he’ll be out for a few weeks. Feel terrible for him, because he had just started getting in an offensive rhythm.
Donovan Newby was banged up on Thursday, but he’s good to go for Saturday night.
Fouls, or Lack Thereof
Through the first two CAA matchups at Trask, we’ve been fortunate to have high-quality officiating crews, featuring guys like Ron Groover, Bert Smith and Lee Cassell — all likely to be working late into March.
The Monmouth game was as physical as we’ve seen in years, and it ended with a combined total of 42 fouls and 46 free throws, which seemed mostly fair.
Sunday’s officiating vs. Delaware was fantastic all around, and their consistency allowed for a balance of free-flowing offense on the break and physicality in the lane. In all, there were 28 fouls and 26 free throws.
Sadly, a full slate of college hoops around the state today means we’re probably due for a regression in that department, and from what we’ve seen with Saturday CAA Refs in recent years, it could dramatically alter the game.
Although a free throw shooting contest would likely benefit the Seahawks, it would be an unfortunate to see our league’s biggest national showcase of the regular season turn into some of the slogs we’ve had to endure in recent years.
With the more typical CAA officials over the first two matchups last season, the Hawks and Cougs combined for 39 fouls/45 free throws in Wilmington and 46 fouls/50 free throws in Charleston.
With an elite officiating crew of Groover, Roger Ayes and Clarence Armstrong in the CAA championship game, the teams combined for 31 fouls and 34 free throws.
Hopefully, they’re an afterthought tonight while the college hoops world gets a look at what makes this rivalry so special.