UNCW Healthy, Looking for Consistency vs. Experienced Norfolk State
Seahawks face a challenge vs. defending MEAC champs
UNCW (3-3) vs. Norfolk State (8-1)
7 p.m. | Trask Coliseum | FloSports | Listen | StatBroadcast
Some welcome home, huh?
Coming off a nine-day road trip that saw the Seahawks afflicted by a flu outbreak that forced the cancellation of two games, they’ll return to Trask to take on a tough, experienced Norfolk State group that might well be the most complete opponent they’ve faced.
This is a great matchup for a healthy UNCW team, still searching for consistency and a true measuring-stick opportunity before taking 10 days off for exams.
UNCW Game Notes | Talkin’ to Takayo Nov. 29
About the Spartans
Not only is NSU expected to successfully defend its MEAC championship, the Spartans got even better thanks to the additions of transfers Kris Bankston (Little Rock), Christian Ings (Rider) and Cahiem Brown (Georgia Highlands).
Add those to a solid returning core with sharpshooter Tyrese Jenkins and savvy veteran guard Joe Bryant, and you’ve got a really good mid-major basketball team and perhaps the best of all HBCU programs.
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The 6-8, 230-pound Bankston is incredibly efficient around the basket, and as a whole, the Spartans are among the best in the nation at drawing fouls — something that could come into play for a UNCW team prone to fouling.
Now in their ninth season under Coach Robert Jones, the Spartans hang their hat on defense and they’re on track for another top-100 finish in forced turnover rate.
Key Players: PG Joe Bryant (15 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.7 steals, 36.4% 3FG); F Kris Bankston (12.3 points, 7 rebounds, 78.3% FG), G Christian Ings (11.1 points, 2.4 assists), G Jalen Hawkins (8.8 points, 3.4 rebounds), G Cahiem Brown (8.2 points, 4 rebounds, 2.4 assists), G Tyrese Jenkins (7.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 41.9% 3FG).
KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 282 overall, No. 245 Offense, No. 301 Defense.
KenPom rankings for NSU: No. 280 overall, No. 294 Offense, No. 232 Defense.
KenPom forecast: UNCW 71, NSU 68 (60 percent chance of victory).
Last meeting
It’s been almost a year since Jake Boggs (18 points) drained two late 3-pointers to lift UNCW to an 80-72 victory in Norfolk on Dec. 18, 2020.
Nine players got into the game for UNCW that Friday afternoon, and seven of them — responsible for 70 points — are no longer with the program.
Needless to say, there’s not much to be drawn from last season’s result.
Turnover Tale
There will most certainly be turnovers, as the Seahawks are forcing them on 20.9 percent (101st nationally) of possessions and the Spartans are getting them on 21.7 percent of possessions, good enough for 79th.
Who’s going to commit them? Well, that might be a deciding factor in the game, as the Seahawks thrive on them — especially at home, where steals lead to transition opportunities, and transition opportunities mean dunks and open threes.
Although UNCW has been a little loose with the ball in the past two games, committing 12 turnovers in both, the Seahawks are still among the nation’s best in taking care of the ball, ranking 33rd in turnover rate.
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It seems the Seahawks could do some damage on the press, as the Spartans can occasionally struggle with turnovers, giving it up an average of 14.3 times per game for a rate of 19.9 percent of possessions — 233rd nationally.
For a team that absolutely has to create some easy buckets, expect UNCW to apply pressure and try to create an avalanche of energy.
Shots, Shots, Shots
Thanks to the recommendation of Friend of the Perch Brian Mull, I hopped on yet another fantastic analytics tool, ShotQuality.
In the most basic explanation possible, its numbers are based in determining the value of every shot by location, type of shot, likelihood of going in and how many points the shot is worth. It’s as close as we’ll ever get to explaining the nebulous concept of good shots vs. bad shots.
And yes, when a team is shooting 36.3 percent from the field and 28.9 percent from 3-point range, shot quality is a valid concern.
UNCW coach Takayo Siddle gave his impression on Monday, pointing out a conversation with assistant Travis Hackert in which they came to the conclusion that fatigue has played at least some part in the misses.
“I’m OK with the shots we’ve been taking,” he said. “The room and rhythm threes we’ve been taking, they’re going to start falling and I’m confident in that.”
So, what does ShotQuality say about UNCW’s, well, shot quality?
The Seahawks have been just about average in their shot selection, while being almost as bad as you can possibly be at making those shots.
Specifically, let’s take a look at the loss to Southern Miss, where UNCW hit just 10 of 40 3-point attempts.
Siddle’s take?
“It’s crazy to go back and look at it,” he said. “We had so many open shots in rhythm and they just didn’t fall for us, especially early. We were getting the shots we wanted.”
ShotQuality’s take?
In looking at each of UNCW’s shots this season, ShotQuality’s algorithm believes that the Seahawks’ 3-point percentage should be six percentage points higher.
So, what is working at the moment? SQ’s data says these are the most valuable shots that UNCW has gotten frequently.
And these are the shots that haven’t generated much success for the Seahawks. Notice a theme? Midrange shots aren’t worth the effort.
Heck of a Harvey
One guy that all of the advanced stats love lately is Jamahri Harvey, who has played his best basketball as a Seahawk.
Harvey was almost singlehandedly responsible for the Hawks’ big second half rally vs. Southern Miss, coming up with three steals to help fuel a 14-point effort as he tallied the fourth double-figure scoring game of his career.
At his radio show on Monday, Siddle admitted that he probably should have played Harvey more early on, but expect him to make up for lost time moving forward.
“I love that kid and I probably should have been playing him a lot more than I have been, and I told him that,” Siddle said. “He’s a difference-maker for us when he’s playing that way. He hasn’t been playing that way consistently enough, which is why his minutes have been affected, but that’s what I’ve been waiting on. He can really change the dynamics of our team.”
The 6-5, 175-pound Harvey is a great fit for what the Seahawks want to do, as his combination of great length, athleticism and instincts make him a strong defender.
His offensive game is picking up steam as he gains confidence, hitting 38.5 percent from beyond the arc. Perhaps most importantly, his approach fits the philosophy, taking 60 percent of his shots from 3-point range, and 18 percent at the rim.
It’s likely he sticks around in the starting lineup tonight, even if the rest of the roster is healthy.
The Blueprint
So, what exactly does UNCW want to be?
The 65-53 victory over Coastal Carolina on Nov. 18 is a good starting point.
“I think we can take a lot of good things from that game. I thought from a defensive standpoint, we really did a great job of playing good team defense. We rebounded the ball well for the most part; they got a little loose in the second half and got some offensive rebounds.”
That night, defense set the table for the Seahawks, who got nine steals — three for Mike Okauru and two apiece for James Baker Jr. and Shykeim Phillips — as part of 14 turnovers.
Per ShotQuality, Coastal was held 31 percent below its expected offensive output that night thanks to suffocating the defense that forced the Chants to shoot 16 of 41 on 2-pointers, and 3 of 15 from 3-point range.
An excellent defensive performance gave the Seahawks plenty of opportunities to run, totaling 14 points on the break.
“I thought offensively, we shared the ball well, I thought we played with great poise and patience,” Siddle said. “I thought we got the shots we wanted, that we were looking for.”
All seven 3-pointers UNCW made were assisted, as part of 12 assists on 22 made field goals, while the Seahawks attacked the bucket enough to create 22 free throw attempts.
Obviously, it wasn’t perfect — there were plenty of missed shots — but it was the closest thing the Siddle has seen to his stylistic vision.
“If you look at that game, that’s what we want to be about,” he said. “That’s how we want to play more consistently.”