UNCW Looking to Bounce Back at Dunk City
The Seahawks visit FGCU on Saturday in Fort Myers finale
UNCW (4-1) at Florida Gulf Coast (1-5)
4:30 p.m. | Alico Arena | ESPN+ | Listen | Live Stats
Like any extended family trip, UNCW has had its ups and downs on its weeklong Florida odyssey.
After a couple of days quality time together to celebrate Thanksgiving, the Seahawks have an opportunity to end things on a positive note with Saturday afternoon’s visit to Florida Gulf Coast.
And just as important, they can dull the bitter taste of Tuesday’s blowout loss to Appalachian State and return home with a winning vibe for what could be a difficult stretch of the schedule.
We talked a bit about FGCU and bouncing back after the App State loss on this week’s Perchcast, which you might have missed over the past few days. While mildly offended we’re not part of your family’s Thanksgiving traditions, we understand:
KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 164 overall; No. 143 offense, No. 192 defense.
KenPom rankings for FGCU: No. 196 overall; No. 97 offense, No. 319 defense.
KenPom forecast: FGCU 70, UNCW 68 (44 percent chance of victory)
Meet the Eagles
Notable Losses: Nov. 7 at Indiana (69-63); Nov. 13 at Pittsburgh (86-74), Nov. 18 vs. Hampton (92-85); Nov. 20 vs. Norfolk State (69-66).
Personnel: F Zach Anderson (13.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.5 turnovers, 43.5% 3FG); F Keeshawn Kellman (12.2 points, 7 rebounds, 61.2% FG); G Isaiah Thompson (13 points); G Dallion Johnson (6.3 points); G Chase Johnston (8.5 points, 2.8 rebounds); C Andre Weir (6.3 pints, 5.2 rebounds).
Voted No. 2 in the ASun preseason coaches poll and No. 4 in the media poll, it’s been a rough start, as FGCU is still seeking its first win vs. a Division I opponent.
Anderson and Thompson lead the way for a squad that can most certainly put the ball in the basket, thanks in part to their huge offensive rebounding numbers to create extra looks.
It’s quite a contrast to a defensive efficiency number that is among the worst in the nation, ranking 318th while allowing opponents to shoot 42.6 percent from 3-point range.
Their Results Say…: FGCU had a second-half lead at Indiana on opening night, and while that raised some eyebrows at the time, the Hoosiers haven’t looked great. The Eagles had a tough time in the Virgin Islands at Paradise Jam, dropping their first game to a Hampton team expected to finish near the bottom of the CAA, before former Seahawk Jamarii Thomas lit them up for 27 points and five steals in Norfolk’s win on Monday.
All About Us
With all due respect to FGCU, this game has nothing to do with the Eagles or what the scouting report has to say about their players.
This one is all about UNCW coming out for the opening tip and playing the brand of basketball we’ve gotten to know over the past few seasons:
Committed to being the tougher team for 40 minutes or beyond.
Attacking the paint and playing inside-out.
Taking pride on the defensive end, protecting the lane and running shooters off the 3-poing line.
Sharing the ball and working for a great shot, rather than settling for the first shot.
Staying the course and playing Seahawk basketball, whether they’re up 10 points or down 10 points.
Each guy sticking to his job with maximum effort, no matter how big or small the role.
Every one of those things is something that UNCW can control, and none of those things have a thing to do with FGCU or even the final score.
The Hawks didn’t check all of those boxes last time out, and it showed in the result. The more they mark off today, the better chance of ending up on top.
Gotta Guard
At halftime of the win over Columbia International, UNCW coach Takayo Siddle was disappointed in his team’s defensive effort and said the readiness to guard wasn’t there.
It hasn’t consistently shown up since then, either, as Murray State and App State combined to shoot 62 percent from the field over the past two games, including a total domination in the paint.
Per Synergy Sports, UNCW’s defense currently ranks in the 25th percentile nationally, allowing 0.920 points per possession. Last season, the Seahawks gave up. 0.858 PPP, putting them in the 79th percentile.
A few observations (statistical + anecdotal) after spending an unhealthy amount of time replaying the App State game:
UNCW’s defense is built on versatility and the ability for players to switch on screens. So far, the Hawks have been shaky in navigating the pick and roll, leaving space for a few open shots and routinely losing the slip/roll man. Per Synergy, opponents have scored 27 points on 20 possessions that went to the roll man, ranking in the 10th percentile. (App State had 10 points on rolls/slips, and Murray State had 12 points.)
It really stuck out in the CIU game with cutters finding the back door (20 points, per Synergy) and it’s popped up a few more times, with App State scoring 14 points on cuts and UNC Asheville getting 13. The Seahawks rank in the 2nd percentile nationally in defending cutters.
So, what’s going on?
It seems to be a combination of several factors, with new players jumping into bigger roles, lack of an established back-line rim protector, and a bit of uncertainty + eagerness to help.
There’s a natural adjustment period when working in several newcomers, and with only a few games together under their belts, this roster is getting used to the strengths, weaknesses and tendencies of teammates.
The biggest spot things have changed are in the center position, which was manned by experienced players with shot-blocking rates over 5 percent in James Baker and Amari Kelly. This season, Khamari McGriff is seeing consistent minutes for the first time and still finding his rhythm in that role. Nick Farrar is sometimes in the center spot, but that’s mainly for the offensive mismatches he can create with his skill + frame. Maleeck Harden-Hayes and Eric Van Der Heijden have gotten a few minutes there, but both are more comfortable on the perimeter.
Having that safety patrolling the lane changes so much — how aggressive you can deny on the wings, the confidence your team has in sticking to their assignments, not doubling the post, and just how deep an opponent is willing to chance driving.
The good news is that almost all of the defensive struggles can be corrected by better communication, more experience together and being mindful of how opponents have taken advantage when Seahawks get caught watching the ball.
It might not be perfect today, but we should see a step in the right direction with fewer lapses that allow easy buckets.
Get to the Rack
As loyal Perch readers, you’re probably overly familiar with the idea of touching the paint and creating at-rim shots.
Over the past two games, the Seahawks have struggled about as badly as possible to create easy layups or post looks. At 7.5 attempts per game, UNCW ranks in the 1st percentile nationally. For comparison, the Seahawks got 15.6 at-rim attempts in wins last season, and 10.6 in losses.
This team is more geared for 3-point shooting than the rosters we’ve most recently had, but those looks from beyond the arc will only benefit from spacing the floor and forcing defensive attention into the paint.
Expect to see a major effort to get guys into the lane with the ball in their hands.
A Brief History of Bouncing Back
With all of the success the Seahawks have had in the past two seasons, every loss to a fellow mid-major is, to some extent, a surprise.
And given the success the Seahawks have had in fighting back from double-digit deficits, there’s almost an expectation that the big run is coming, and the Hawks will yet again stun an opponent that wasn’t tough enough to withstand the storm.
A loss, and one that just kept snowballing as the opponent turned it into a layup line? That’s a major shock to the system, especially when we’d watched the exact opposite fewer than 24 hours earlier.
Two points on that:
Tuesday was rough all the way around. It wasn’t fun to watch the first time and it was even more disappointing the second.
The Seahawks learned the kind of lesson you’ll only want to endure once, the sun came up on Wednesday and they got back to work.
These things happen in college basketball, and in fact, UNCW has suffered a 20+ point loss to a fellow mid-major twice in each of the past two seasons.
All four times, the Seahawks responded.
Dec. 11, 2021 at Jacksonville (79-48)
Followed by: The school-record 12-game winning streak, ultimately changing the course of the program after several losing seasons. UNCW is 52-15 since that loss.
Feb. 17, 2022 vs. Towson (79-55)
Followed by: Five straight wins, reaching the CAA championship game.
Jan. 19, 2023 at Hofstra (70-46),
Followed by: A four-game winning streak to right the ship after a stretch of three losses in four games.
Feb. 8, 2023 at Charleston (93-61)
Followed by: Two straight wins, including a huge overtime win at Drexel that ensured in bye in the CAA Tournament.
Basketball is a game of adjustments, and it’s incredibly encouraging that UNCW has had exactly one two-game losing streak against peer competition since the Jacksonville incident.
(A total of three times with consecutive losses: The Seahawks lost three straight to Southern Miss, Norfolk State, and Jacksonville in Dec. 2021, Oklahoma and Connecticut in Nov. 2022, Charleston and William & Mary in Jan. 2023.)