UNCW to Meet Byington, JMU on Thursday
The Seahawks put their six-game winning streak on the line
UNCW (9-5, 3-0) at James Madison (11-4, 2-2)
7 p.m. | Atlantic Union Bank Center | FloHoops | Listen | StatBroadcast
Good teams take care of business; great teams win on the road.
UNCW’s 180-degree mid-season turnaround entered new territory on Monday night with the program’s first conference road win in nearly two years, and tonight, the Seahawks can shock the CAA again as they meet up with James Madison.
Winners of six straight games, UNCW will meet up with a familiar face in Dukes coach Mark Byington, who scored 1,088 points as a Seahawk guard from 1994-98.
Thursday night’s matchup should be a fun one, featuring two guard-heavy lineups looking to push the pace and pressure the ball.
Here’s what to watch for in Harrisonburg.
Meet the Dukes
Key Players:Â G Vado Morse (12.9 points, 2.4 assists, 1.6 steals); G Takal Molson (12.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.6 steals); G Charles Falden (10.9 points, 3.4 rebounds, 45.5 3PFG); F Justin Amadi (9.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 64.7% FG); F Julien Wooden (8.3 points, 4.2 rebounds)
Byington, who led JMU to a share of the CAA regular-season title last season, has quickly turned the Dukes into winners behind a fast and efficient offense and opportunistic defense that ranks 30th nationally in forced turnover rate.
The Dukes are deep, with 10 players averaging at least 14 minutes, although it seems Byington could be without a key player in Alonzo Sule (8.4 points, 6 rebounds), who has missed the past two games due to COVID protocols.
Morse and Molson are both disruptive defenders who will end up with their share of shots, while Falden is a deadly shooter.
JMU has wins over Virginia, Old Dominion and George Mason this season, but suffered a surprising 90-67 loss at Elon on Monday night.
KenPom rankings for UNCW:Â No. 267 overall, No. 239 Offense, No. 272 Defense.
KenPom rankings for JMU:Â No. 191 overall, No. 178 Offense, No. 204 Defense.
KenPom forecast: JMU 76, UNCW 68 (25 percent chance of victory).
Starving the Beast
Much like Charleston on Monday night, JMU wants to play fast without employing a ton of fullcourt pressure.
Instead, the Dukes play an extended halfcourt defense that looks for traps and often runs an aggressive, physical double-team at ballhandlers to create turnovers and fuel an offense that thrives on easy transition buckets.
JMU is quite good at it too, ranking 30th nationally in turnover rate, forcing opponents to hand it over on 22.8 percent of possessions.
There’s a direct correlation to success for the Dukes, as they’re forcing 19.6 turnovers with an average off 11 steals in wins. In losses, the turnover average drops to 12.3, with steals at 8.3.
One of the main reasons UNCW pulled off the victory at Charleston was taking care of the ball, as the Seahawks committed just nine turnovers (12 percent), including two in the second half.
Even more incredible, starting point guard Jaylen Sims has only one turnover in his past 73 minutes on the court.
Over the six-game winning streak, UNCW’s turnover rate is 14.6 percent for an average of 11.7 per game. The closer the Seahawks stick to those averages, the better their odds for a victory.
Big Boards
The offense rightfully gets most of the credit for the Seahawks’ surge, but lately, the Seahawks have been able to hang with everyone in the rebounding battle despite a relative lack of size.
During the six-game winning streak, UNCW is getting 32.2 percent of offensive rebounds, which ranks in the 75th percentile according to CBB Analytics. On the defensive side, the Seahawks are getting 73 percent of rebounds, which ranks in the 61st percentile.
In particular, James Baker Jr. — who is playing fantastic — has been relentless on the offensive boards, grabbing 2.8 per game while Trazarien White (2.3) and Amari Kelly (2.2) aren’t far behind.
Meanwhile, Sims (5.0) and Mike Okauru (4.3) are both above the 90th percentile in defensive rebound average during the winning streak.
It’s truly been a team effort on the boards, and that bodes pretty darn well against an opponent that ranks 260th in offensive rebounding rate and 266th in defensive rebounding rate.
JMU is averaging 10.4 offensive rebounds in victories, and 6.5 in losses.
Due for Buckets
For the first time during the winning streak, Okauru was held in check offensively, shooting 3 of 10 from the field to finish with nine points, five rebounds and three turnovers, ending a run of five games where he scored at least 10 points.
History tells us Okauru will bounce back in a big way.
Four times, Okauru was held below 10 points last season, and in the following games, he averaged 17.5 points.
This season, Okauru got off to a slow start in the first two games before breaking out for 12 points in the third. Since then, he has followed three single-figure efforts with an average of 16.7 points.
In a wide-open, guard-heavy game vs. JMU, all signs point to Okauru getting into the lane and finishing tough buckets — and that’s in addition to what he brings as a rebounder and defender.
Too Much of a Good Thing?
With a defense that collapses hard in the paint, traps and double-teams, there are plenty of opportunities for open 3-pointers against the Dukes, but the question as always is whether it’s worth taking a good shot from deep or a great shot at the rim.
On Monday night, Elon lit up JMU for 17 of 40 from 3-point range in the blowout victory, while each of the Dukes’ previous three losses saw opponents shoot better than 35 percent from beyond the arc. Interestingly, though, those teams averaged just 21 attempts.
In JMU’s wins, opponents are shooting 27.8 percent from 3-point range on an average of 26.5 attempts.
UNCW should have plenty of confidence shooting the ball from deep, as the Seahawks have made 41.8 percent from beyond the arc during the winning streak, but it’s important they don’t fall in love with the jumper to the point of neglecting the attacking style that is key to their success.