UNCW (10-5, 4-0) at Towson (14-5, 5-1)
2 p.m. | SECU Arena | FloHoops | Listen | StatBroadcast
If anyone predicted these two teams would be arrive at this matchup with a combined 12 straight wins and first place on the line, they should be using those powers for something far more important than college basketball.
It’ll be the Seahawks’ seven-game streak up against a five-game run for the Tigers on Saturday afternoon, and when all is said and done, the winner will roll on into the CAA’s catbird seat.
UNCW Game Notes
Not bad for a couple of teams predicted to bring up the rear in the league, as Towson was voted eighth in the preseason poll while UNCW came in at ninth.
Here’s what to watch for in a matchup between the CAA’s two feel-good turnaround teams.
Meet the Tigers
Key Players: G Cam Holden (14.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, 1.8 steals); Nicolas Timberlake (13.6 points, 4.6 rebounds); G Jason Gibson (11.9 points, 45.7 3FG%); G Terry Nolan Jr. (11.2 points, 4.4 assists); G Antonio Rizzuto (8.4 points); F Charles Thompson (7.7 points, 5.5 rebounds); F Juwan Gray (7.8 points, 4.3 rebounds).
Amid several COVID stoppages last season, Towson struggled to a 4-14 mark before adding a few experienced transfers to a talented core, while getting another key player back from injury.
Sounds familiar, huh?
Coach Pat Skerry hit the jackpot in the portal thanks to the addition of Holden, who has the look of an All-CAA player and certainly sounds like a great guy, too. One way or another, he’ll find a way to impact the game, whether it’s going for 20 or more points, grabbing 10 boards, and even once this season, posting a 10-assist game.
Nolan isn’t afraid to put it up anywhere on the floor, but he’ll do most of his damage inside the arc. Beyond it, the Seahawks will have to keep an eye on Gibson at all times, as the junior guard is getting up 6.1 3-point attempts per game and hitting an average of 2.8 of them. Don’t be fooled by Gibson’s unassuming look, as he’s already dropped 26- and 22-point efforts on conference opponents.
The Tigers, who will lean on a guard-heavy lineup, follow a simple formula: take time to get a great shot on offense, take care of the ball and crash the offensive boards hard.
Last time Skerry had an offense close to this good, finishing 79th in efficiency in 2014, the Tigers went 13-3 in the CAA.
KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 259 overall, No. 237 Offense, No. 260 Defense.
KenPom rankings for Towson: No. 91 overall, No. 49 Offense, No. 152 Defense.
KenPom forecast: Towson 75, UNCW 62 (11 percent chance of victory).
Emotional Roller Coaster
Coming off a wild comeback and miracle finish to beat James Madison fewer than 48 hours ago, UNCW has to get up to play the third game — in six days — of its road swing.
After getting that high emotionally on Thursday night, can the Seahawks ramp it back up yet again?
They were the better team for the final 10-15 minutes on Thursday night, but before that, they didn’t look much like the team we’ve come to know during the seven-game winning streak.
The offense wasn’t nearly as sharp as it can be, settling for too many long jumpers, committing silly turnovers and over-dribbling.
Was that a matter of running into a solid opponent, tired legs or the law of averages finally catching up with a team that had been humming offensively?
The Seahawks aren’t catching anyone by surprise anymore, and on Saturday, they’re running into an opponent looking to get into first place on its home floor.
The Shot Margin
The general idea of how UNCW plays is that taking care of the ball on offense and looking to create turnovers on defense, the Seahawks end up taking more shots than their opponents.
Through four CAA games, there’s a direct correlation between UNCW’s field goal margin and UNCW’s victory margin, ranging from +13 FGA in the eight-point win vs. Charleston, to a dead heat (57 FGA apiece) in the one-point win over JMU.
So, how will the Seahawks create that margin on Saturday?
Both routes look pretty tough, as Towson ranks 75th in offensive turnover rate at 17.2 percent and 17th in offensive rebounding rate, with the Tigers grabbing an absurd 35.7 percent of their misses.
The Seahawks have surprisingly held their own on the boards lately, as Thursday was the first time an opponent had truly opened up a major margin, as the Dukes won the rebounding battle 39-29, including a 14-9 edge on offensive boards.
Incredibly, UNCW ended up with a 17-6 advantage on second-chance points.
Saturday, the Seahawks are going to have to find a way create turnovers and at least hang around on the boards. Allowing 14 extra chances to an offense as good as Towson’s will almost certainly result in a loss.
The Closer
It was overshadowed by Jaylen Sims’ shot on Thursday night, but Shykeim Phillips had another incredibly clutch performance, scoring nine points down the stretch to help UNCW complete the performance.
Since the Seahawks changed up the offense and got more spacing, Phillips has gotten to the lane at-will.
Particularly, he’s been a killer when it counts, hitting 13 of 21 field goal attempts (1/1 3-point attempt) and a perfect 11 of 11 at the free throw line in the last five minutes and the overtime period at High Point.
Overall, Phillips is getting 7.4 field goal attempts per game in the paint, where he’s averaging eight points.
Despite standing just 6-2, he ranks in the 98th percentile nationally for both of those figures during the winning streak.
On a day that a great offense might be UNCW’s best defense, getting Phillips on the attack early and often will be key.