What to Watch for: UNCW at Pitt
Seahawks, Panthers both searching for inspired play
UNCW (1-1) at Pittsburgh (0-2)
7 p.m. | Petersen Events Center | ESPN+ | Listen | StatBroadcast
These games always represent opportunity for the UNCW program.
Financial opportunity for agreeing to play on the road with no return trip to Wilmington, opportunity to see just how the Seahawks measure up against the athleticism and talent of an ACC roster, and most importantly, an opportunity to make the college hoops world take notice of the scrappy program from Wilmington.
Rarely is this sort of matchup a big game for the major-conference program.
That’s not the case tonight, as UNCW’s visit to Pittsburgh represents a turning point for both teams, as the Seahawks look to move past a shaky first week while the Panthers are in desperate need of their first victory.
About Pitt
Things weren’t supposed to go well for the Panthers this season, but somehow, they’ve gotten worse as injuries and absence have left Pitt with just nine scholarship players.
Chosen 14th in the ACC’s preseason poll, the Panthers opened its season by falling behind The Citadel 27-9, which never looked back in a 78-63 victory in Pittsburgh.
Pitt’s shooting got better on Friday night at West Virginia, but 32 turnovers were just too much to overcome as the Mountaineers cruised to a 74-59 win.
They got good news on Monday, however, when Coach Jeff Capel said that transfer guard Jarius Burton will likely make his debut on Tuesday night.
Key Players: F John Hugley (22 points, 8 rebounds), G Femi Odukale (13.5 points, 4 assists), F William Jeffress (6 points, 7 rebounds) F Gueye Mouhamadou (6 points, 6 rebounds), G Jamarius Burton (10.3 points, 3.4 assists at Wichita State in ‘19-20).
KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 277 overall, No. 202 Offense, No. 323 Defense.
KenPom rankings for Pitt: No. 170 overall, No. 193 Offense, No. 152 Defense.
KenPom forecast: Pitt 74, UNCW 65 (20 percent chance of victory)
Sense of Urgency
There’s one thing that will be tell us more than stats or the scoreboard can say on Tuesday night: “Did UNCW play hard and play with great energy for 40 minutes?”
So far, that hasn’t been the case this season, as waning energy cost the Seahawks early in the second half at Illinois State, and on Friday, Guilford played harder from the opening tip.
It’s no secret.
“They were playing harder than us, to be honest, throughout most of the game,” guard Shykeim Phillips said.
“It’s a learning experience, being ready to play as soon as the tip goes up,” guard Jaylen Fornes said. “We don’t have time to warm up the bodies or warm up the minds; you’ve got to come out ready to play when the ball goes up.”
So, just how did Coach Takayo Siddle and his staff get through to his team on Saturday and Sunday in Wilmington?
Quickly, we’ll see what the Seahawks learned from that experience, meeting a Pitt team that should show up desperate for a win on its home floor.
It takes time for guys to get the right feel for exactly when to trap, and it’ll take time for guys to learn exactly how teammates run on the break — that’s fine. It doesn’t take talent or timing to play with maximum effort.
Don’t be surprised if Siddle decides to shake up the starting lineup with Amari Kelly to give his team a boost.
A Big Matchup
To this point, Kelly has provided a spark over the 35 minutes he’s played, scoring 12 points while grabbing 11 rebounds — nine of them on the offensive end. Perhaps even more important, he’s shown some potential as a strong defender, moving well and getting up to block three shots.
He’ll have has hands full on Tuesday night, often matching up with the 6-9, 240-pound Hugley, who has gone 17-30 from the field and 9-15 at the free throw line so far.
Given that Pitt will also use the 6-9, 210-pound Guye — and other high-major size — it seems likely that the Seahawks will use a two-big lineup at times.
So far, Kelly has only been paired up with James Baker Jr. once for UNCW, with the duo playing three minutes together on Friday night, outscoring Guilford 9-2.
That lineup combination is an interesting pairing, giving the Seahawks two athletic big men capable of protecting the rim and grabbing rebounds, while maintaining the ability to run.
And if nothing else, this is a homecoming of sorts for Kelly, who began his career at Duquesne — he’ll have plenty of people to show out for.
Turn ‘em over
UNCW’s pressure has been very good in spurts while nonexistent in others, forcing a total of 22 turnovers in two games.
Not great; definitely not bad — somewhere around average.
That would be fine if the Seahawks offense was functioning at a high level right now, but because of the struggles on that end, the emphasis on getting stops and creating turnovers is magnified.
It just so happens that through two games, there are two very clear blueprints for beating Pitt: force turnovers and knock down threes — both things that a well-oiled UNCW team is capable of.
Two hallmarks of championship-level Seahawk basketball during Siddle’s time as an assistant were forcing turnovers at a high rate (around 20 percent) and attempting — and making — 3-pointers.
The Citadel hit 13 of 36 3-point attempts, while WVU made 9 of 22 while forcing 32 turnovers.
Given Pitt’s roster situation, this is a perfect opportunity to unleash all kinds of pressure for 40 minutes, and it just might get lucky against Odukale (5.5 turnovers per game).
If Siddle gets the energy, effort and physicality he wants from his team tonight, there’s a good chance they’ll be rewarded.
Gimme Your Best Shot
A wise man once said, “Good teams usually shoot a high percentage because they usually take good shots.”
So far, the Seahawks have taken and made some good shots, while missing a few out of just old-fashioned bad luck, as Alec Oglesby, a great shooter, is 1 of 7 from 3-point range with mostly good looks. (It doesn’t help he’s working through a toe injury.)
Far too often, however, the Seahawks have taken bad shots.
According to Hoop-Math.com, UNCW is currently shooting 24.4 percent (307th nationally) on 2-point jumpers — shots that make up about 32 percent (56th) of the Seahawks total shots.
Perhaps most surprising about all of those 2-point jumpers is that based on the numbers, not one of those made 2-point jumpers have been assisted — meaning they were created off the dribble or off a rebound.
Very rarely, is that the best possible shot on any given possession.
Until UNCW can improve the amount of transition opportunities it can create for its offense, the Seahawks are much better off attempting 3-pointers, where they’re shooting 34 percent on 36.7 percent of its total shot attempts.